Vaccine: ‘EU is the virus, not the pandemic’ says Gallois
The Covid vaccination programme aims to force a decrease in the rate of community transmission. Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the decline in community transmission is the most important measure for lifting lockdown. Express.co.uk has analysed new vaccination data and global survey information to assess how many people are likely to have taken up the vaccine if offered so far, and how many people are still at risk.
The UK is home to an estimated 67.8 million people according to the Office for National Statistics’ population projections data.
This represents an increase of around 4.6m since the 2011 Census according to the Office for National Statistics.
Professor Hayward said the key to leaving lockdown is to continue to reduce the rate of community transmission.
He told the BBC’s Today Programme: “I think we would want to see a continual decline in community cases. So really that’s the most important measure.
“It’s the number of community cases that drives the number of deaths – that’s fairly straightforward.”
He estimated “we would be more or less back to normal in the summer, I’d imagine.”
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Professor Hayward added he believes normality will be within reach when all people aged 50 and over have received the jab.
He said: “Once the most vulnerable people, particularly those over 50 and those with chronic illnesses, are vaccinated then yes I think we can see a significant return to normality.
“That, in addition to the fact coronavirus is a seasonal disease, I think will make a big difference and allow us to open up.
“I think what we’ll see is a phased opening up as the vaccination levels increase, and then we will be more or less back to normal for the summer, I would imagine.”
A new survey revealed 81 percent of UK study respondents say they would get vaccinated against Covid-19, while just 44 percent of the French said the same.
This makes British the most likely nationality to receive the vaccine if it was offered to them this week.
The research carried out by Imperial College London’s Institute of Global Health Innovation (IGHI) and YouGov is part of a global monitoring project on attitudes toward the vaccines and showed an uplift in attitudes toward Covid-19 vaccines.
Overall the survey found 54 percent of people said in January they would get vaccinated if they were offered a dose in the next week, which is up 14 percent from November.
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The following percentages of each of these nationalities are willing to get the Covid vaccine if they were offered to them according to the survey:
- The UK: 81 percent
- Denmark: 79 percent
- Netherlands: 70 percent
- Norway: 68 percent
- Italy: 66 percent
- South Korea: 63 percent
- Finland: 63 percent
- Sweden: 62 percent
- Spain: 62 percent
- Australia: 60 percent
- Canada: 60 percent
- Germany: 54 percent
- Singapore: 48 percent
- Japan: 46 percent
- France: 44 percent.
Assuming 81 percent of every vaccine priority group chooses to take up the vaccine, the following number of people in each age group will choose to get the vaccine:
- Age 80 and over: 2.784m out of 3.437m
- Aged 75 and over: 2.047m out of 2.527m
- Aged 70 and over: 2.744m out of 3.388m
- Aged 65 and over: 2.75m out of 3.395m
- Those with underlying health conditions: 1,782m out of 2.2m
- Aged 60 and over: 3.22m out of 3.975m
- Aged 55 and over: 3.708m out of 4.578m
- Aged 50 and over: 3.729m out of 4.604m
- Remaining population: 31.936m out of 39.427m.
If lockdown begins to ease once all those willing to take up the vaccine aged 50 and over are vaccinated, in accordance with Professor Hayward’s clams, an estimated 5.34 million people will remain unvaccinated.
This will then rise to 12.831m people, once everyone in the UK has received the vaccine.
It is unlikely the vaccination rate will be the same for each priority group, but it is estimated around 54.92m will be vaccinated overall, leaving 12.882m unvaccinated across Britain.
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